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Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
Yes
5¢
No
95¢
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?
Yes
47¢
No
53¢
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?
Yes
64¢
No
36¢
Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Yes
95¢
No
5¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?
Yes
21¢
No
79¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?
Yes
84¢
No
16¢
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will exactly 7 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
Yes
19¢
No
81¢
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?
Yes
80¢
No
20¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
Yes
43¢
No
57¢
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?
Yes
3¢
No
97¢
Is Earth flat?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?
Yes
3¢
No
97¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?
Yes
23¢
No
77¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?
Yes
34¢
No
66¢
Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Yes
45¢
No
55¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
Yes
5¢
No
95¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
Yes
35¢
No
65¢
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
Yes
13¢
No
87¢
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?
Yes
11¢
No
89¢