Prediction Market Probability & Odds Converter
Convert between prediction market prices, implied probabilities, and decimal odds. Adjust the fee input to see fair value after platform fees.
Understanding Prediction Market Odds
In prediction markets, prices represent the market's consensus probability of an event occurring. A price of 65 cents means the market collectively estimates a 65% chance the event will happen. If you buy a "Yes" contract at 65 cents and the event occurs, you receive $1.00, netting a 35-cent profit.
Decimal odds are the multiplicative return on a bet. A 65-cent price corresponds to decimal odds of 1.54, meaning a $1 bet returns $1.54 if successful. Fractional odds express the same information as a ratio of profit to stake: roughly 6/11 in this case.
Platform fees affect the "fair" price of a contract. If a platform charges a 2% fee on winnings, a contract priced at 65 cents has a fair value slightly higher because your net payout after fees is less than $1. Understanding this adjustment is important for comparing prices across platforms with different fee structures.
Traders use these conversions to identify value bets, where the market price implies a lower probability than their own analysis suggests. Combining probability estimates from multiple prediction markets can also produce more accurate forecasts than any single platform alone.