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Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?
Yes
11¢
No
89¢
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026?
Yes
2¢
No
98¢
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
Yes
100¢
No
<1¢
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will Meta be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?
Yes
2¢
No
98¢
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?
Yes
81¢
No
19¢
Will Joe Burrow be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will "Clarissa" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?
Yes
14¢
No
86¢
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of December 2026?
Yes
4¢
No
96¢
Will Marvel's Wolverine win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Meta announces a training pause by October 31?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 28, 2026?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will "Tutu" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
Yes
25¢
No
75¢
Will Christian Pulisic be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will Reanimal win Best Audio Design at the 2026 Game Awards?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will Martin McDonagh be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?
Yes
69¢
No
31¢
Will more than 650,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will Mia Mottley be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
Yes
1¢
No
99¢
Will Order of the Sinking Star win Best Independent Game at the 2026 Game Awards?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in Rhode Island by November 30, 2026?
Yes
2¢
No
98¢
Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?
Yes
3¢
No
97¢
Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $50 in 2026?
Yes
32¢
No
68¢