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Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?
Yes
8¢
No
92¢
Will Perplexity’s market cap be greater than $100B at market close on IPO day?
Yes
5¢
No
95¢
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?
Yes
6¢
No
94¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Yes
13¢
No
87¢
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16?
Yes
2¢
No
98¢
Will Tesla deliver between 325000 and 350000 vehicles in Q2 2026
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?
Yes
3¢
No
97¢
Will The Weeknd have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
Yes
11¢
No
89¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will Kanye West visit the UK by June 30?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?
Yes
20¢
No
80¢
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Love Wins: 2026 Edition
Yes
29¢
No
71¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16?
Yes
14¢
No
86¢
Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2026?
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will June 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
Yes
92¢
No
8¢
Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?
Yes
5¢
No
95¢
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be less than 200k?
Yes
1¢
No
>99¢
Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?
Yes
5¢
No
95¢