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Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?
Yes
19¢
No
81¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
Yes
11¢
No
89¢
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?
Yes
28¢
No
72¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
Yes
25¢
No
75¢
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?
Yes
58¢
No
42¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?
Yes
25¢
No
75¢
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
Yes
33¢
No
67¢
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?
Yes
1¢
No
>99¢
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?
Yes
2¢
No
98¢
Will Strava’s market cap be between $2B and $3B at market close on IPO day?
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?
Yes
95¢
No
5¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
Yes
5¢
No
95¢
Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
Yes
2¢
No
98¢
Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
Yes
41¢
No
59¢
Will Chappell Roan be the top artist for 2026?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?
Yes
100¢
No
<1¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
Yes
100¢
No
<1¢
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will Morgan Wallen be the top artist for 2026?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
Yes
98¢
No
2¢
Will Shane Parton win The Bachelorette Season 22?
Yes
<1¢
No
>99¢