Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
Cross-Platform Prices
Polymarket
Bid
0.5
Ask
0.5
Mid
0.5
Vol: $15K
Kalshi
Bid
0.2
Ask
0.2
Mid
0.2
Vol: $0
Matched Pairs
Poly
Kalshi
entity
3041 bps
BUY K → SELL P
Polymarket
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
Bid 0.51 · Ask 0.54 · Mid 0.54 · Vol $15K
Kalshi
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
Bid 0.18 · Ask 0.19 · Mid 0.18 · Vol $0
Spread Buy K: 0.3041
Spread Buy P: -0.3762
Best Arb: 0.3041 (3041 bps)